Turn Data Into Decisions

Fewer Stockouts. More Revenue. More Cash. 

TSF Demand replaces the demand calculation in your ERP with a fully automated Dynamic Plan that uses no AI whatsoever. Tested against enterprise and mid-market planning systems, the Dynamic Plan had fewer stockouts, earned more revenue, and recovered more cash. Every week, it delivers the agenda for your planning meeting: the alerts, the actions the Dynamic Plan will take, the decisions that need a person, and a full revenue forecast for every department, category, and state.

Dynamic Planning Reporting

Every week, TSF builds three reports from the plan’s projections: the Weekly Planning Meeting, the Operations Reports, and the Revenue Report. TSF writes each report around the decisions for the coming week, and every decision opens to the SKUs behind it.

The examples below are from a historical simulation on Walmart M5 data, for the week ending July 4, 2015. The M5 dashboard contains the full reports for every week of 2014 and 2015.

Open the M5 Dashboard

The Weekly Planning Meeting

TSF writes the agenda for the weekly planning meeting from the plan’s own projections. Each card states one finding for one category in one state, what the plan projects over the next 21 days, and the decision the meeting has to make.

In the week ending July 4, 2015, write-downs climbed in Foods 2 in Texas and in Household 1 in Wisconsin. Each card shows the units written down this week, the stock that will be written down within 30 days unless it sells, and the write-down cost.

Open the M5 Dashboard

▲ Foods 2, Texas: write-downs up 3.1× their four-week average
187 units written down this week against a four-week average of 61. 26 SKUs approaching write-down: 674 units projected to be written down over the next 21 days; write-down cost $2,010.
▶ Mark down or transfer this stock; review the inventory level.
Show the SKUs ▾
Foods 2, Texas: units written down
▬ Texas
0501001502006/66/136/206/277/4Texas, week ending 6/6: 18Texas, week ending 6/13: 24Texas, week ending 6/20: 42Texas, week ending 6/27: 158Texas, week ending 7/4: 187
▲ Household 1, Wisconsin: write-downs up 9.2× their four-week average
189 units written down this week against a four-week average of 21. 18 SKUs approaching write-down: 448 units projected to be written down over the next 21 days; write-down cost $2,787.
▶ Mark down or transfer this stock; review the inventory level.
Show the SKUs ▾
Household 1, Wisconsin: units written down
▬ Wisconsin
0501001502006/66/136/206/277/4Wisconsin, week ending 6/6: 6Wisconsin, week ending 6/13: 12Wisconsin, week ending 6/20: 0Wisconsin, week ending 6/27: 64Wisconsin, week ending 7/4: 189

Operations Reports

The Operations Reports list every decision the plan projects for the coming week. The Management Overview gives the number and cost of the decisions in each department, and each department’s report groups its decisions by problem, with the SKUs in each group.

Open the M5 Dashboard

Management Overview: All Departments, All States

DepartmentDecisions RequiredAutomatic ActionsProjected StockoutsApproaching Write-DownWrite-Down CostUnresolved Decisions
▾ Foods5016148060$7,767581 (up to 13 weeks)
▸ Foods, California1531932221$3,314164 (up to 13 weeks)
▾ Foods, Texas1742302919$1,500228 (up to 12 weeks)
Foods 1, Texas154342$17329 (up to 10 weeks)

Foods 1, Texas: Decisions Required (15)

MeasureSKUCategoryStateDetailStatus 
Show▸ Expedite3 items; earliest run-out 07/05.Runs out before any new order can arrive.
Show▸ Stockout Ahead1 item; earliest run-out 07/12.Runs out even with the plan’s own orders.
Show▸ Sales Stopped1 item; stock cost $88.A product that was selling has nearly stopped, with stock left that will not sell on its own.
Show▸ Approaching Write-Down2 items; write-down cost $173.10% or more of the SKU’s stock will be written down within 30 days unless it sells.
Show▸ In Clearance6 items; stock cost $105.50% or more of the SKU’s stock has gone unsold past the 30-day Foods selling window.
Show▸ Approaching Clearance2 items; stock cost $54.25% or more of the SKU’s stock will go unsold past the 30-day Foods selling window within the look-ahead.

The Revenue Report

TSF forecasts revenue and units separately, so the Revenue Report splits every gap to forecast into the dollars from units sold and the dollars from revenue per unit. Demand planning systems calculate revenue from a unit forecast and a price, so they cannot make that split.

Each card tags the result and gives the action: reorder the items about to run out, or review the items whose price changed. When a gap falls within the forecast’s normal variation, the card says it needs no explanation.

Open the M5 Dashboard

Household Demand Result
+$18,799
above forecast, month to date
Revenue +13.3%
Realized $160,444
Forecast $141,645
Units sold +16.1%
Realized 42,516
Forecast 36,626
+$22,779 to revenue
Revenue per unit −2.4%
Realized $3.77
Forecast $3.87
−$3,980 to revenue
Household sold 16.1% more units than forecast, while each unit sold within 3% of its forecast price. The gain came from units, not from revenue per unit.
▶ Reorder the Household items about to run out.
Show Household by state ▾
 
 ResultRevenueUnits SoldRevenue per Unit
ForecastRealizedDifferenceForecastRealizedDifferenceForecastRealizedDifference
▸ Household, CaliforniaDemand$66,025$71,825+$5,80016,14418,046+11.8%$4.09$3.98−2.7%
▸ Household, TexasDemand$41,943$48,255+$6,31211,20612,940+15.5%$3.74$3.73−0.4%
▾ Household, WisconsinDemand$33,306$40,364+$7,0589,57911,530+20.4%$3.48$3.50+0.7%
 ResultRevenueUnits SoldRevenue per Unit
ForecastRealizedDifferenceForecastRealizedDifferenceForecastRealizedDifference
Household 1, WisconsinDemand$25,690$32,170+$6,4817,8289,694+23.8%$3.28$3.32+1.1%
Household 1, Wisconsin Demand Result
+$6,481
above forecast, month to date
Revenue +25.2%
Realized $32,170
Forecast $25,690
Units sold +23.8%
Realized 9,694
Forecast 7,828
+$6,126 to revenue
Revenue per unit +1.1%
Realized $3.32
Forecast $3.28
+$355 to revenue
Household 1, Wisconsin sold 23.8% more units than forecast, while each unit sold within 3% of its forecast price. The gain came from units, not from revenue per unit.
▶ Reorder the Household 1 items in Wisconsin about to run out.
 
Household 2, WisconsinNormal$7,362$8,194+$8321,6441,836+11.6%$4.48$4.46−0.3%
Foods Within Normal Variation
+$22,865
above forecast, month to date
Revenue +9.2%
Realized $272,707
Forecast $249,842
Units sold +10.3%
Realized 112,609
Forecast 102,048
+$25,856 to revenue
Revenue per unit −1.1%
Realized $2.42
Forecast $2.45
−$2,991 to revenue
Foods sold 10.3% more units than forecast, within their normal range, and each unit sold for 1.1% less than forecast, within 3%. That is within the forecast’s normal variation: no explanation needed.
▶ No action needed.
 

Open the M5 Dashboard

Dynamic Planning vs. Safety Stock Plans

A historical simulation runs three supply plans against two years of daily sales, January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2015, for 10 Walmart stores in the M5 data set: the TSF plan; an Enterprise plan, with an Auto ARIMA forecast and standard safety stock; and a Mid-Market plan, with a 12-month moving average forecast and standard safety stock. Each plan runs under five ordering scenarios, and every plan executes every order exactly as calculated, with no overrides.

Dynamic Planning vs. Safety Stock Plans

Store replenishment, own warehouse with next-day delivery: the TSF plan against the Enterprise plan, all 10 stores, per year.

+$248,440

Net Profit Boost

+15.3% of the Enterprise plan’s operating profit

+$322,572

Cash Recovered

More cash left in the business each year

72% Fewer

Stockout Days

28,829 against 103,192

“Against the Mid-Market plan, the TSF plan led on every dollar result in every scenario.”

Download the Case Study (PDF)Download the Appendix Workbook (Excel, ZIP)

A Historical Simulation on Your Data

TSF Demand runs this same simulation on a business’s own sales history: its products, its suppliers’ delivery times, its order schedules, its case packs, and its margins. The results show what the TSF plan would have done with that business’s stock, cash, and profit over the past two years, before anything in the business changes.

Request a Historical Simulation

Put TSF Demand to Work Across Your Organization

Sales & Operational Planning

Know which SKUs need attention before your next S&OP meeting. TSF delivers SKU-level signals that identify demand shifts the moment they happen. Your planning conversations start with what's changing now, not what went wrong last month.

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Impact Analysis

Every intervention lands on top of baseline demand conditions you have never been able to measure. TSF gives you that baseline. For the first time, you know what normal looks like, which means you know what your interventions actually did.

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Capacity Planning

Demand for your resources follows structural patterns your current tools can't see. TSF maps normal capacity demand and fires real-time alerts when conditions shift. With TSF,  you staff, schedule, and allocate ahead of the curve instead of behind it.

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Procurement Timing

Most procurement decisions are made on schedule. TSF replaces the schedule with a signal: a live measurement of where any price sits relative to its own structural baseline. When the signal fires, the price is abnormally low. That is when you buy.

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See What TSF Demand Can Do For Your Business

Every TSF Demand engagement starts with a free consultation. We review your data environment, walk through your planning needs, and give you a clear picture of what the service would look like for your business. You decide what happens next.

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